On how to think about risk

This week I came across this model in a very old slide deck:

I was quite impressed with my past self for coming up with this. Nice work somewhat younger Pete.

I think this is a really good way to think about risk. Here’s what I do:

  • Some things have a high financial impact but we can’t insure them (eg. divorce). These things we need to avoid or mitigate. Prioritise looking after yourself and your marriage etc.

  • Some things have a high financial impact and are insurable (eg. death). Insure those things (until you don’t need to because you have enough money or assets to cover their loss).

  • Don’t insure things that have a low financial impact, whether you can or not. Don’t extend the warranty.

Of course, I don’t know your circumstances, and as Seth Godin would say, milage may vary.